WakeOfAshesPosts: 21,665destroyer of motherfuckers
Your numbers make sense only if the infection total in Italy was 115k tests. That’s not accurate. That’s the number of positive tests but the actual number of infected is likely 100-1000 times greater. Most medical experts agree that the worst case scenario for the USA in 2020 is 250k deaths. That’s a lot for sure but keep in mind cancer kills 650k per year and of those 250k deaths how many were likely to die this year anyways? I’ll give you not all, but some would. Like my dad will die if he catches it, but he will probably die this year if he doesn’t also. There are no medical experts out their claiming the chance of death if you catch it is 12%. That’s ridiculous. In fact I think they are saying if you catch it there’s less than 1% chance you need hospitalization
i suspect by 2021 we won’t have as many deaths as Italy. Yes Italy has 1/3 our population however we have a much larger land mass. Outside of a couple places like nyc and Chicago, we aren’t living as closely as they are in Italy. And our population isn’t as old as theirs. Additionally we have 9 times the number of icu beds then they have. We have a lot going for us but one thing I know for sure is China is a bunch of liars. 3k deaths? Bullshit
This virus is serious. It’s at the very least 2-3 times deadlier than flu. Everyone here has a good chance of catching it. Rex and I probably have the highest chance of catching it since our gf’s are nurses and their risk is high even if they aren’t in COVID19 areas of hospital. Everyone here would live through this without needing hospitalization. For sure you would MC. I think if I was going to pick one person who would have the hardest time with it, I’d probably pick Dime.
Pretty sure I speak for everyone here when I say we hope you get it.
I’ll live and then have antibodies for it. I am very healthy and have no underlying conditions. Nbd. It would be better for you to wish I die in a car accident or kill myself over money or something.
Thats the thing man...
Covid-19 is hospitalizing lots of people under 50 with no underlying health issues and the doctors dont appear to know why. They think some people might get it worse based on blood type and genetics.
You could get it and die lol. Its not a guarantee that its just a bad cold.
I miss hanging out with people. I haven't seen anyone since the end of January. The last time I did anything was the Penguins vs Capitals game before this blew up. Still haven't been to a game where we won so I should probably stop going to any games lmao
I wonder when the next time I'll hang out with anyone will be. The end of summer? A year from now? Also, I hope that when anyone I know that gets it they don't die from it.
Conservatively, if we really want to slow down the spread, id say our best bet for larger gatherings will be July 4th. Thats pretty conservative though, i could see it extending long into fall.
Its impossible to stop the spread at this point. Once China dropped the ball and covered it up, any chance at stopping the spread was pretty much gone. Even if they had alerted everyone in Dec, and been transparent, it probably would have been really hard/impossible.
But from my understanding, if we live a couple of months without going anywhere, we cpuld slow it down enough to where we could then live 30 or says days at more of our normal life style.
But then We would need to go back to stay at home for a few months in order to keep the hospitals from being overrun again.
I really wouldn’t expect life to be completely back to normal for 18-24 month, with it being more likely to be 2 years. We wont have a vaccine for 2 years that can be distributed, but we may have successful treatments before then that would make it less necessary to completely stay at home.
Things probably wont be as strict for 2 years if people do distance themselves correctly though.
Saying you wouldn’t care until the deaths hit 30 million. Thats one of the most selfish things i have ever heard
The people who are dying are locked in a room
with zero way to contact their family.
Yeah I completely recognize that it is. Logically when I write shit like that I can recognize that this is a vile and really insensitive thing to say because real people are losing their lives over this. Families are hurting over losing loved ones...logically I know what you are saying is true..... but how I feel about it? Literally don’t care. I guess if you guys want I can keep my true insensitive feelings to myself and pretend to be someone else
Pretty sure I speak for everyone here when I say we hope you get it.
I’ll live and then have antibodies for it. I am very healthy and have no underlying conditions. Nbd. It would be better for you to wish I die in a car accident or kill myself over money or something.
Thats the thing man...
Covid-19 is hospitalizing lots of people under 50 with no underlying health issues and the doctors dont appear to know why. They think some people might get it worse based on blood type and genetics.
You could get it and die lol. Its not a guarantee that its just a bad cold.
There are some medical articles that would back what im about to say, but this is not 100% fact and I’m sure there are outliers... besides having underlying conditions, there is a belief in the medical community that the viral load you receive impacts your ability to recover from it. Think of the virus as someone walking around with U238 in his pocket. If you pass him on the street and shake his hand then the dosage of radiation you receive will get you sick but you’ll recover unless you had some underlying condition. Now if you sit down and have a long dinner with him, no matter how healthy you’re going to die. I think the virus is slightly similar which is why doctors and nurses are in such a heightened place of danger. You are correct Rex that some healthy people that get it do die, however I personally believe it is due to receiving high viral dosage of the virus. It’s unlikely I’d catch a large viral dose of it as I don’t work in the medical field
Man, I just can’t fathom why your whole fucking family noped out on you.
My family didn’t nope out on me. I married a woman I didn’t know after 3 days of meeting her to take a chance. We had nothing in common, and never really liked each other. Because I made her a promise, i stuck to that promise even though we should have never married. That marriage lasted 12 years until she wanted to go a different way with her life and I was happy she wanted it over. I have a good coparenting relationship with my ex, and my life is much happier now. I have a great gf, great job, real friends, and still have split custody of my kids. My life today is significantly better than it was married to my ex. I wouldn’t want it any other way.
Divorce can happen to anyone. I think you’d be silly to think you’re immune
I'm not scared of the virus or death. But I do care about the people around me that could get it from me if I had it. Also, if anyone you know dies from it a funeral won't happen. You don't get to visit them while in the hospital. None of that shit. If you have a kid and they get it, you don't get to see them or be there for them. And if they die from it they'll die alone. Idk about you but that's fucking terrible.
Also, where tf did you get 0.1% from? When this started that wasn't even the number, it was around 2%. Fuck even the new number they think it could be is 0.68%. But as it sits with all the cases that are closed/with outcomes it's 20% have died (globally). In the US 10,043 people have recovered with 6,088 deaths (the rest being active cases). It also isn't just killing older people, it's killing young people too. And we haven't even peaked yet. Not only that this thing isn't going to go away in a month or two. It's going to be around for a while, hopefully no longer than a year.
This virus is no joke and should be taken serious. It is deadlier than the flu and by the end of this it'll definitely reflect that even if people refuse to believe it.
Sorry - missed this post last night. You are incorrect about a lot of things in this email. There are countless articles that will back up what I’m going to say but I’m just going to list the first one I googled.
If your kids catch it the risk that they need hospitalization is 0.00%. For kids 10-19 the risk of hospitalization is 0.1%. For 20-29 the risk is 1%. If anyone catches it the risk of hospitalization is super low. Youll just stay home and recover from it like any other cold. The “recovered” numbers that are posted are the number of people hospitalized that catch it and then recover. These are people where it was so bad they needed ICU to help them live long enough to recover. So hard No on if you catch it you have a 50/50 percent chance of dying; That is so far from reality it’s ridiculous. Not a single medical expert is saying that. If you guys catch it you have a less than 1% chance of needing hospitalization, however if you do need hospitalization then things get serious for you.
Where did I get 0.1% from? Good question and this number could end up being wrong. The White House and medical community were projecting about 250,000 people would die from this in 2020. That number has since been updated to 100,00-250,000. If we assume 250k and divide thst by the population in the USA then that is roughly 0.07%. I just rounded it up to 0.1% to be extra extra conservative in my death toll number. My opinion differs from the WH and medical community average. I personally think the death toll in 2020 will be like 30k-60k. That’s based on nothing though, just what I think
Pretty sure I speak for everyone here when I say we hope you get it.
I’ll live and then have antibodies for it. I am very healthy and have no underlying conditions. Nbd. It would be better for you to wish I die in a car accident or kill myself over money or something.
Thats the thing man...
Covid-19 is hospitalizing lots of people under 50 with no underlying health issues and the doctors dont appear to know why. They think some people might get it worse based on blood type and genetics.
You could get it and die lol. Its not a guarantee that its just a bad cold.
There are some medical articles that would back what im about to say, but this is not 100% fact and I’m sure there are outliers... besides having underlying conditions, there is a belief in the medical community that the viral load you receive impacts your ability to recover from it. Think of the virus as someone walking around with U238 in his pocket. If you pass him on the street and shake his hand then the dosage of radiation you receive will get you sick but you’ll recover unless you had some underlying condition. Now if you sit down and have a long dinner with him, no matter how healthy you’re going to die. I think the virus is slightly similar which is why doctors and nurses are in such a heightened place of danger. You are correct Rex that some healthy people that get it do die, however I personally believe it is due to receiving high viral dosage of the virus. It’s unlikely I’d catch a large viral dose of it as I don’t work in the medical field
I have read this too, and its scary. I do believe it is probably playing a cause for nurses/doctors.
I feel like a big reason why this thing is so scary is because we don't have any data on it.
You can say young people will be fine till you are blue in the face, and that very well may be true, but we simply do not have enough data on this to know for sure, and we probably wont until this is all over.
I also agree, i am not completely worried i would die if i got it. My biggest worry, and the biggest reason i am staying home mostly is because i worry im asymptomatic. I live and stay at home in Grand Rapids, but i am quarantined with my GF in Twin Lake, which is about 50 minutes from GR. My biggest worry is bringing it to my Mom who has congestive heart failure, or to my dad, who is an alcoholic smoker. Or worse even yet, bringing it from one community to another.
I'm not scared of the virus or death. But I do care about the people around me that could get it from me if I had it. Also, if anyone you know dies from it a funeral won't happen. You don't get to visit them while in the hospital. None of that shit. If you have a kid and they get it, you don't get to see them or be there for them. And if they die from it they'll die alone. Idk about you but that's fucking terrible.
Also, where tf did you get 0.1% from? When this started that wasn't even the number, it was around 2%. Fuck even the new number they think it could be is 0.68%. But as it sits with all the cases that are closed/with outcomes it's 20% have died (globally). In the US 10,043 people have recovered with 6,088 deaths (the rest being active cases). It also isn't just killing older people, it's killing young people too. And we haven't even peaked yet. Not only that this thing isn't going to go away in a month or two. It's going to be around for a while, hopefully no longer than a year.
This virus is no joke and should be taken serious. It is deadlier than the flu and by the end of this it'll definitely reflect that even if people refuse to believe it.
Sorry - missed this post last night. You are incorrect about a lot of things in this email. There are countless articles that will back up what I’m going to say but I’m just going to list the first one I googled.
If your kids catch it the risk that they need hospitalization is 0.00%. For kids 10-19 the risk of hospitalization is 0.1%. For 20-29 the risk is 1%. If anyone catches it the risk of hospitalization is super low. Youll just stay home and recover from it like any other cold. The “recovered” numbers that are posted are the number of people hospitalized that catch it and then recover. These are people where it was so bad they needed ICU to help them live long enough to recover. So hard No on if you catch it you have a 50/50 percent chance of dying; That is so far from reality it’s ridiculous. Not a single medical expert is saying that. If you guys catch it you have a less than 1% chance of needing hospitalization, however if you do need hospitalization then things get serious for you.
Where did I get 0.1% from? Good question and this number could end up being wrong. The White House and medical community were projecting about 250,000 people would die from this in 2020. That number has sense been updated to 100,00-250,000. If we assume 250k and divide thst by the population in the USA then that is roughly 0.07%. I just rounded it up to 0.1% to be extra extra conservative in my death toll number. My opinion differs from the WH and medical community average. I personally think the death toll in 2020 will be like 30k-60k. That’s based on nothing though, just what I think
The problem here is that countries like China and Iran, two of the 3 hardest hit other than us, are lying about their numbers.
If you plug the data we have in, it predicts that we could see 3-4 million in the USA dead before winter time, if we did nothing at all. These Stay at home orders should help, but until we all take it serious, we are going to keep overwhelming the hospitals.
My GF is an ICU nurse. Her hospital just recently moved to a completely new building, so the fortunately have a whole building available that they have already turned into the area where they plan to bed people being admitted for Covid-19. 4 entire floors dedicated.
Luckily she works on the ICU floor and not in the Covid are.
Typically hospitals will have 30 ICU beds per floor with the ability to expand that to 40 with emergency beds.
So if you take her 4 floors, thats 160 beds MAX. in two weeks when this thing starts getting bad here, you could see those 160 beds fill up in ONE day. And they do not have 160 ventilators. Hell some rural hospitals have no beds available and no ventilators on site.
Now my GF's hospital is about average size. The hospitals in my town of GR and larger as we have what is called here as Medical Mile, but we still don't have the capacity to handle the onslaught.
The issue here wake is not that some people with underlying health conditions will die. Its that we will lose countless live, probable double or triple that would be typically die just from the virus, because we do not have the space or equipment currently to give people adequate care. People are not necessarily dying from the virus, but from lack of care.
You can say young people will be fine till you are blue in the face, and that very well may be true, but we simply do not have enough data on this to know for sure, and we probably wont until this is all over.
I also agree, i am not completely worried i would die if i got it. My biggest worry, and the biggest reason i am staying home mostly is because i worry im asymptomatic. I live and stay at home in Grand Rapids, but i am quarantined with my GF in Twin Lake, which is about 50 minutes from GR. My biggest worry is bringing it to my Mom who has congestive heart failure, or to my dad, who is an alcoholic smoker. Or worse even yet, bringing it from one community to another.
I agree with almost everything here. You are correct we don’t have nearly enough unbiased data on this to really have accurate projections. And I also agree there are “healthy young people with no underlying condition” who will die. There are always outliers in statistical data. I also agree I wouldn’t visit my family that have underlying conditions and I have instructed them to hard shelter in place.
I’m not encouraging you guys to go visit your elderly grandparents or don’t take safety precautions like washing your hands often or avoiding contact with your face. I’m only suggesting to understand the risks (which are very low) and realize some things in moderation are perfectly fine. Seeing your gf is okay. Having a band practice with your 3 band mates is fine. As semi healthy people here, you don’t need to lock yourself in you bedroom and hiding under your blankets.
I don’t know why I have such a lack of empathy for people dying. It’s fucked up but I don’t
The problem here is that countries like China and Iran, two of the 3 hardest hit other than us, are lying about their numbers.
If you plug the data we have in, it predicts that we could see 3-4 million in the USA dead before winter time, if we did nothing at all. These Stay at home orders should help, but until we all take it serious, we are going to keep overwhelming the hospitals.
The numbers I reported are the mean of statistical projections that medical experts are estimating. Those estimate are not taking into account China and Iran because there is quite a few data points that show they are misrepresenting their actual statistics (China and Iran are big fat liars). These medical experts a couple weeks ago were projecting 250k deaths in the USA in 2020 and this is what the White House also has projected. Note this is a large group of medical experts and some project much higher and some project much lower... we don’t have enough data and new variables cause changes to these projections daily. This number has been recently updated to be 100k-250k. Yes you can find some guy who will estimate 5 million, you can also find someone who will estimate 15k. Anyways we won’t know the real damage until it’s all over with. Even if I were to take your number though of 3-4 million (which is 10times greater than what most medical experts project) that’s still only like 1 person in a thousand dies from this. That just doesn’t seem all that high for me to personally worry about it. At 35 million deaths then it’s like 1 in 10. That sounds scary.
Last thing I want to point out... for us to hit your 3 million dead in USA in 2020 do you understand what that means? Roughly speaking there is 270 days left in 2020. 3 million/270 days = 11,111 people need to die today and every single day for the rest of the year. Right now we are at 5k per 1 month. And so you think we are going to go from 5k per month to 11,111 per day.
Yeah i agree, MC would probably be okay seeing his GF. I think that probably comes from his parents and living with them though.
I go to the store, but i try to limit it as much as possible and i wear gloves/mask combo lol.
I go to the store when necessary without wearing mask or gloves. I keep a couple step distance from anyone. I use the hand sanitizer when I enter, when I leave, and wash my hands when I get home. I don’t touch my face.
I’m not throwing caution to the wind, I am taking steps to limit my exposure to it... I’m just not all that worried about it. I think if it as I do the flu. I don’t want to catch the flu and if I remember I try and get a flu shot but I miss some years. Catching flu doesn’t keep me up at night and doesn’t worry me at all. Yes this is likely 3-4 times more dangerous than flu but 3-4 times more dangerous than something that isn’t dangerous to me is nbd.
If restaurants were open I’d eat at them when the same level of caution I use at stores. I wouldn’t go to a crowded sporting event or concert right now though
Comments
i suspect by 2021 we won’t have as many deaths as Italy. Yes Italy has 1/3 our population however we have a much larger land mass. Outside of a couple places like nyc and Chicago, we aren’t living as closely as they are in Italy. And our population isn’t as old as theirs. Additionally we have 9 times the number of icu beds then they have. We have a lot going for us but one thing I know for sure is China is a bunch of liars. 3k deaths? Bullshit
Covid-19 is hospitalizing lots of people under 50 with no underlying health issues and the doctors dont appear to know why. They think some people might get it worse based on blood type and genetics.
I wonder when the next time I'll hang out with anyone will be. The end of summer? A year from now? Also, I hope that when anyone I know that gets it they don't die from it.
for a few months in order to keep
the hospitals from being overrun again.
If you plug the data we have in, it predicts that we could see 3-4 million in the USA dead before winter time, if we did nothing at all. These Stay at home orders should help, but until we all take it serious, we are going to keep overwhelming the hospitals.
My GF is an ICU nurse. Her hospital just recently moved to a completely new building, so the fortunately have a whole building available that they have already turned into the area where they plan to bed people being admitted for Covid-19. 4 entire floors dedicated.
Luckily she works on the ICU floor and not in the Covid are.
Typically hospitals will have 30 ICU beds per floor with the ability to expand that to 40 with emergency beds.
So if you take her 4 floors, thats 160 beds MAX. in two weeks when this thing starts getting bad here, you could see those 160 beds fill up in ONE day. And they do not have 160 ventilators. Hell some rural hospitals have no beds available and no ventilators on site.
Now my GF's hospital is about average size. The hospitals in my town of GR and larger as we have what is called here as Medical Mile, but we still don't have the capacity to handle the onslaught.
The issue here wake is not that some people with underlying health conditions will die. Its that we will lose countless live, probable double or triple that would be typically die just from the virus, because we do not have the space or equipment currently to give people adequate care. People are not necessarily dying from the virus, but from lack of care.
I don’t know why I have such a lack of empathy for people dying. It’s fucked up but I don’t